Wide open field places New Mexico at the top of WAC
1. New Mexico State
Last season: 25-9, 11-5 Western Athletic Conference (NCAA Tournament first round)
Strengths: The Aggies return a seasoned, super-athletic core of players, led by senior forward Justin Hawkins. Hawkins is a dangerous slasher who should merit some player of the year consideration. Guard Fred Peete also returns to give the Aggies an outstanding perimeter defender, and the low-block duo of Hatila Passos and Martin Iti is about as formidable as any in the WAC.
Concerns: Coach Reggie Theus instilled a swagger to the Aggies’ program. With him gone, new coach Marvin Menzies has a tough task to keep that momentum going even with a talented group of returning players. The Aggies will miss Theus, but the loss of All-WAC forward Tyrone Nelson, who was dismissed from the team after pleading no contest to robbing a pizza delivery man, might hurt even more. At 6-foot-9, Nelson’s combination of size and athleticism made him a terror in transition and in the post. To make matters worse, highly-touted recruit Herb Pope still doesn’t have clearance from the NCAA. His versatility could have helped fill Nelson’s void, but now the Aggies are left scrambling for a replacement until Pope can finally step on the floor.
Question: Do they still deliver pizza after 10 p.m. in Las Cruces?
2. Nevada
Last season: 29-5, 14-2 WAC (NCAA Tournament second round)
Overall: Senior Marcelus Kemp is one of the most explosive perimeter scorers in college basketball. Nevada coach Mark Fox has surrounded him with a talented, athletic group of young players. The Wolf Pack also boasts one of the nation’s most athletic frontcourts. Sophomore 7-footer JaVale McGee has a huge wingspan, nice shooting touch, and he runs the floor and jumps like a small forward. He’ll likely play alongside senior Demarshay Johnson, who redshirted last season after being declared academically ineligible. Johnson started as a junior and gives the Wolf Pack another bouncy shot blocker.
Weaknesses: Fox has raised the program to the point where there are no more rebuilding years, but replacing four starters from last season’s 29-5 team will be a tough task. Sophomores like McGee, guard Brandon Fields and forward Matt LaGrone need to take big steps in production to help the Wolf Pack. The most pressure falls on freshman guard Armon Johnson. With Ramon Sessions in the NBA and Lyndale Burleson ineligible for the first semester, the Hug High product will have to be productive immediately.
Question: Can Armon Johnson replace enough of Ramon Sessions production for the Wolf Pack to be efficient on offense?
3. Utah State
Last season: 23-12, 9-7 WAC (National Invitation Tournament)
Overview: Stew Morrill is the most underrated coach in America. As long as he’s roaming the sidelines in Logan, the Aggies will be a contender for the WAC championship. This year Morrill has some help in All-American candidate Jaycee Carroll. The 6-foot-2 guard averaged more than 21 points per game last season and is one of the best shooters in the nation. He ravaged WAC defenses last season and should do much the same as a senior.
Weaknesses: While Morrill is an outstanding coach, he’s achieved most of his success with gritty, overachieving team. Translation – the Aggies don’t have the same talent as the WAC’s other frontrunners. Logan’s a tough draw for players, and it’s unclear whether Morrill has enough talent around Carroll to win the title. Ohio State transfer Brayden Bell should help.
Question: Will Morrill’s group of new talent step up and provide Carroll with enough scoring support to allow the Aggies to make a run?
4. Fresno State
Last season: 22-10, 10-6 WAC (NIT)
Overview: The Bulldogs lost a talented pair of forwards in Dominic McGuire, who chose to leave school early for the NBA, and Quinton Hosley, along with high-scoring guard Javance Coleman. That trio accounted for more than 37 points per game last season. Still, coach Steve Cleveland has one of the conference’s best point guards in Kevin Bell (5.6 assists per game). Bell should have plenty of options – Eddie Miller and Dwight O’Neill are capable wing scorers and center Hector Hernandez is a tough matchup with his deft shooting touch. The Bulldogs are always talented, but they never seem to be able to put together a consistent season.
Weakness: While Hernandez is one of the better centers in the conference, he’s undersized at 6-foot-9 and does most of scoring from the outside. The Bulldogs don’t have a proven threat on the block to keep defenses honest.
Question: Cleveland’s proven he’s a good coach, but will he ever be able to get his team to make a championship push?
5. Boise State
Last season: 17-14, 8-8 WAC
Overall: Now that Coby Karl is gone to the NBA, the Broncos have to replace their emotional leader and possibly the best player in program history. Matt Nelson and Reggie Larry both averaged double figures in scoring and rebounded well last season, and sophomore guard Anthony Thomas emerged as a potential star during his freshman season. The Broncos have enough talent to compete, now they have to find somebody to replace Karl’s fire for winning.
Weakness: Similar to the Bulldogs, the Broncos lack size in the post. Freshman Zack Moritz is the only player 6-foot-10 or taller. Nelson held his own on the boards last season, but at 6-foot-9 with a more perimeter-oriented game, he’s not enough to bang with some of the WAC’s more physical big men.
Question: Is there life after Coby Karl?
6. Hawaii
Last season: 18-13, 8-8 WAC
Overview:
The Rainbow Warriors are in a period of transition. Former coach Riley Wallace stepped aside after 20 years as head coach, and now Bob Nash will try to move the program forward.
The Rainbow Warriors lost tough post player Ahmet Gueye and leading scorer Matt Lojeski, but Nash has son Bobby Nash and guard Matthew Gibson, who both averaged more than 10 points per game last season.
Concerns:
While losing Gueye and Lojeski hurts, the Rainbow Warriors’ biggest loss is Wallace. Wallace led Hawaii to three NCAA Tournament and six NIT appearances. Nash is capable, but Wallace was an institution and will be hard to replace.
Question:
Will Hawaii ever be able to win on the mainland?
7. Louisiana Tech
Last season: 10-20, 7-9 WAC
Overall: While most of the attention is paid to the WAC’s open race for the championship, the part of the conference with the most postseason implications starts here with the Bulldogs. The poor play of the bottom tier of the WAC has killed the conference over the last several years. If the Wolf Pack and both Aggies have to play six sub-240 RPI games in conference, don’t bet on multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament this season.
Concerns: The Bulldogs played well during conference play last season, but lost their top six scorers. Coach Kerry Rupp is also new to Ruston, so the Bulldogs have plenty of change to overcome.
Question: Can the WAC’s bottom three teams hold their own in the nonconference?
8. San Jose State
Last season: 5-25, 4-12 WAC
Overview:
The Spartans haven’t finished .500 or better since 2001, but it doesn’t look like coach George Nessman will break the losing cycle this season. Nessman must replace his top two scorers from last season and will depend heavily on 5-foot-11 guard Jamon Hill to pick up the slack.
Concerns:
The Spartans have to replace the top two scorers from a team that was pretty bad a season ago. There hasn’t been much continuity in the Spartans’ program as Nessman relies heavily on junior college players to fill out his roster.
Question: Do you believe in miracles?
9. Idaho
Last season: 4-27, 1-15 WAC
Overview:
The Vandals don’t have any players that averaged double figures last season – at the Division I level anyway. Darin Nagle is a do-it-all big man, but the rest of the roster is mostly unproven.
Concerns:
The Vandals didn’t have much going for them last season outside of guard Keoni Watson, who averaged more than 18 points per game. Now that Watson’s gone, Idaho’s chances at success aren’t promising.
Question: Why is Idaho in the WAC?
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