WAC Men’s Rankings
Monday, Mar. 10, 2008 @ 10:49 pm
1. New Mexico State Aggies
No. 3 seed (19-13 regular season, 12-4 WAC)
Outlook – For whatever reason, the Aggies haven’t really lived up to expectations this season. The Aggies struggled in the non-conference, and the top-notch group of seniors that includes Justin Hawkins, Fred Peete, Hatila Passos and Martin Iti hasn’t really meshed with the Aggies highly touted freshmen. Still, the Aggies are super-talented and playing at home, plus they caught a break when Idaho snuck in as the No. 6 to give them a pretty simple first round game. They’re the favorites.
Best co-champ matchup – Boise State
If the Aggies reach the finals, they’ll hope to see the Broncos waiting for them. The Broncos lack a dominant star like Jaycee Carroll or Marcelus Kemp and, despite their experience, they just can’t compete athletically with the Aggies.Worst co-champ matchup – Nevada
The Wolf Pack is biggest threat to derailing the Aggies plans for a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Nevada is the only team in the conference that can matchup talent-wise with the Aggies, which is a big reason why the Pack took them down twice in the regular season. Still, the Aggies have plenty of motivation to come together and overcome their nemesis.X-Factor – Consistency
The Aggies have the talent to win the tournament, but can they come together to get it done?
2. Nevada Wolf Pack
No. 2 seed (20-10, 12-4)
Outlook – This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Nevada coach Mark Fox, but instead the Wolf Pack came together to take another regular season conference championship. The Wolf Pack has the most talent of any team in the tournament, led by Marcelus Kemp and a group of youngsters, but it’s been inconsistent on the road. With a talented Fresno State team waiting in the first round, the Wolf Pack has the toughest path of any of the conference’s four co-champions.
Best co-champ matchup – Utah State
This might look like I’ve got the two Aggies confused, but give me a second to explain. The Wolf Pack has played better against New Mexico State, but Utah State is a better matchup for the Wolf Pack. The Aggies don’t quite have Boise State’s experience and they’re way short of New Mexico State’s talent. The Wolf Pack has the ability to physically overwhelm the Aggies, and Brandon Fields and Lyndale Burleson are good enough to at least slow star Jaycee Carroll down a bit. Now if Fox can only find an answer for coach Stew Morrill’s witchcraft, that will be the test.
Worst co-champ matchup – New Mexico State
Yeah, I know. The Wolf Pack dominated the Aggies twice this season, but it’s incredibly difficult to beat somebody three times – especially a team as good as the Aggies. The Wolf Pack matches up perfectly with New Mexico State, but the Aggies’ biggest issue is that they lack the on-court chemistry the Pack has. After two embarrassing losses, though, the Aggies have plenty of motivation to come together for one focused effort.X-Factor – JaVale McGee
McGee has a tendency to disappear at times, but he’s one of the most physically gifted players in the nation. When McGee is active and involved, like he has been the last two games, the athletic freak is impossible to guard with one man. When McGee forces teams to commit multiple defenders to stopping him, it creates space for Kemp, Brandon Fields and Armon Johnson on the perimeter and the Wolf Pack is very hard to beat.
3. Utah State Aggies
No. 1 seed (23-9, 12-4)
Outlook – The Aggies aren’t incredibly athletic, but they do have a senior backcourt that includes the conference’s most explosive scorer in player of the year in Jaycee Carroll and one of the best coaches in the nation in Morrill. Forwards Gary Wilkinson and Tai Wesley aren’t going to pop many eyes, but they’re a couple bruisers that can hold their own down low.
Best co-champ matchup – Boise State
Of the WAC’s top-four teams, the Broncos are the least athletic. The Aggies wouldn’t have to worry about the Broncos running away from them, meaning they could slow down the game and make it a contest of halfcourt execution. The Broncos are awfully tough to beat in that kind of game.
Worst co-champ matchup – New Mexico State
The Aggies split with the Wolf Pack and New Mexico State during the regular season, so this is a bit of a touch call. While the Wolf Pack is better equipped to deal with Carroll because of defenders Fields and Lyndale Burleson, the Aggies have Passos, Iti and Pope to neutralize Wilkinson and Wesley and a terrific homecourt advantage.
X-Factor – an off night
The Aggies simply won’t survive if Carroll isn’t the efficient scorer he’s been all year. He’s such a big part of their team and the Aggies don’t have the complimentary scorers to stay in games if Carroll struggles.
4. Boise State Broncos
No. 4 seed (22-8, 12-4)
Outlook – For most of the season, the Broncos looked like the class of the WAC. But then they choked away sole possession of the conference championship at home against Utah State in their regular season finale. Still, the Broncos won 10 of their last 12 conference games and they have the experience to overcome the late loss. In fact, the four seniors in the starting lineup are the Broncos strength. This team isn’t particularly talented compared to previous WAC contenders, but they do have four players who have weather the college basketball storm.Best co-champ matchup – Nevada
The Broncos don’t match up well athletically with the Wolf Pack, but they have so much more experience. It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, but the Broncos couldn’t beat either of the other co-champs during the regular season. They’ll have a tough time with the Wolf Pack too, should the two teams meet in the finals, and a third win would be because of the experience advantage.Worst co-champ matchup – New Mexico State
The Aggies are bigger, faster and stronger. They have the bigs to matchup with Matt Nelson and Justin Hawkins and Pope are both capable of locking down Reggie Larry. The Broncos are a great shooting team, but the Aggies perimeter defense is capable of suffocating open looks.X-Factor – Tyler Tiedeman
Tiedeman is the third scoring option behind Nelson and Larry, but he’s a pure shooter capable of putting up huge scoring numbers – he’s scored 20 or more points seven times this season. If he can get open and knock down a few jump shots, he’ll free up space for his inside counterparts.
5. Fresno State Bulldogs
No. 7 seed (13-18, 5-11)
Outlook – This team isn’t as talented as the last couple Bulldogs teams, but there’s enough talent in hyperactive point guard Eddie Miller and sweet-stroking guard Eddie Miller to spring an upset or two in the tournament. The Bulldogs aren’t all that big inside, but they play tough defense and shoot a ton of 3-pointers. The Wolf Pack and New Mexico State cannot have been excited to see the Bulldogs slip into their half of the bracket.Best co-champ matchup – New Mexico State
The Bulldogs are 0-8 against the co-champs, but they should have beaten New Mexico State at home. The Aggies live off creating turnovers out of their high-pressure defense, but Bell is smart and fast enough to take care of the ball and break down the perimeter defense to create space for himself or the Bulldogs jump shooters. If the 3-pointers are going down, the Bulldogs can beat the best in the conference.Worst co-champ matchup – Nevada
The Wolf Pack won pretty easily in both regular season matchups. As per most teams, the Bulldogs don’t have the size to stop an offensively-capable big man like JaVale McGee.X-Factor – Hector Hernandez
Bell and Miller are probably going to score no matter what, but the Bulldogs need a third option like Hernandez to make any noise in the tournament. Hernandez is capable, but his shooting percentages are way down. As a perimeter-oriented big man, his struggles have put a lot of strain on the rest of the team. Aside from knocking down shots, Hernandez is the only Bulldog bulky enough to hold his own on the glass.
6. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
No. 5 seed (11-18, 7-9)
Outlook – For much of the season, the Rainbow Warriors served as the fifth part of the muddle atop the WAC standings. The Warriors are still the No. 5 seed, but they lost plenty of distance after losing seven of their last eight games. Hawaii’s current seven-game skid is the longest in the conference. This week’s outlook isn’t good for the Warriors.
Best co-champ matchup – Utah State
Despite the recent struggles, the Warriors did beat both Aggies in the regular season. The Warriors don’t play well off the island, but they have enough quality shooters, including the prolific Matt Gibson, to take down one of the favorites if they can put their team back together.Worst co-champ matchup – Nevada
The Wolf Pack handled the Warriors easily on the islands and in Reno. The Wolf Pack’s size is a problem on both sides of the floor, and Hawaii forward Bobby Nash’s worst two scoring games of the conference season came against the Wolf Pack.X-Factor – Bobby Nash
Gibson is explosive, but he’s not Jaycee Carroll. Translation – he needs help. For the Warriors to have any kind of success, Nash needs to be a consistent scoring threat.
7. San Jose State Spartans
No. 8 seed (12-18, 4-12)
Outlook – After beating co-champs Nevada and Utah State, the Spartans looked like a vastly improved from their days as the WAC doormat. At the very least it appeared that the Spartans would avoid the play-in game. But, alas, a five-game losing streak to close the season has the Spartans back in the same place they finished last season.Best co-champ matchup – Whoever they can get
Facing yet another play-in game situation, the Spartans just want to have the chance to face one of the four co-champions (in this case, Utah State). Despite struggling yet again, the Spartans did show some improvement this season by beating Nevada and Utah State. If they can get past Louisiana Tech, the Spartans should have some confidence heading into the second round.Worst co-champ matchup – Boise State
Let’s be honest, the Spartans aren’t seeing anyone from the other side of the bracket this year, although they have proved capable of springing an upset. Even if they do get a couple wins and reach the semis, the Broncos aren’t a good matchup for the Spartans. Anthony Thomas is quick and tough to defend and the Broncos are very good inside.X-Factor – Justin Graham
The freshman guard was snubbed from the WAC All-Newcomer team, but he provided the Spartans with consistent scoring this season and promise for the future. The WAC Tournament would be a nice stage for him to break out.
8. Idaho Vandals
No. 6 seed (8-20, 5-11)
Outlook – This is the Vandals best seed in four WAC Tournaments since joining the conference. The Vandals really struggled in the non-conference, but managed to beat up on the other also-rans to rise to No. 6. They were also one of only two teams to sweep the San Jose State-Hawaii road swing.Best co-champ matchup – nobody
The Vandals don’t stack up with any of the WAC’s top teams, but, if pressed, the Broncos have the least imposing size-athleticism combo. It would be a long shot, especially considering they have to go through New Mexico State and probably Nevada to get their, but the Vandals could give the Broncos a close game on the right night.Worst co-champ matchup – everybody
The Vandals get props for the No. 6 seed, but it’s not like it was all that impressive. They didn’t beat any of the top-four teams and did most of their damage against the bottom of the conference. That’s not saying much considering nobody but the co-champs finished with a winning record in conference play.X-Factor – Jordan Brooks
For a 6-foot-3 guy, Brooks is a horrible perimeter shooter (he was one of 16 on 3-pointers for the season). Still, he has great slashing and leaping ability that allowed him to be up decent scoring and rebounding numbers this season. He’ll have to be even bigger for the Vandals to do anything in the tournament.
9. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
No. 9 seed (6-23, 3-13)
Outlook – Bulldogs fans are excited about what’s to come for the Bulldogs, but they haven’t been very competitive this season. Guard Kyle Gibson (16.6 points per game) is a nice player, but he’s not enough to get the Bulldogs past the quarterfinals.Best co-champ matchup – New Mexico State
Because the Aggies are the only team who failed to beat the Bulldogs by 10 or more points this season.Worst matchup – Boise State
Because the Broncos won the proxy Rochambeau tournament here in the office for the honor, they have the advantage.X-Factor – The Almighty
Yeah, I’m talking about the big guy. Coach Kerry Rupp has a phenomenal group of transfers and recruits coming next season that should vault the Bulldogs into the top half of the conference, but a trip to the NCAA Tournament this season would require divine intervention.
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