With the heavily anticipated annual Grammy Awards set to air on Sunday, many people have already begun to speculate about who will be the winners of the prestigious Best New Artist award alongside Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Album of the Year. Follow along as I break down what my vote would be, what piece I think will actually win and why!
Best New Artist
Nominees:
- Benson Boone
- Teddy Swims
- Shaboozey
- Chappell Roan
- RAYE
- Doechii
- Sabrina Carpenter
- Khruangbin
My Vote: Doechii
My Prediction: Chappell Roan
2024 was a unique year for the music industry. Many of the hits on Billboard’s Top charts shared the characteristics of polished indie-pop mixed with country. Unlike the previous year, Latin-pop music didn’t dominate the chart as much and was replaced by country-pop with catchy hooks and acoustic ambiences. The country uprising slowly started last year with artists like Morgan Wallen to Noah Khan easing the transition between the crave of the alternative genre and cut-down acoustic performances.
The nail in this coffin was when Beyoncé released her country album Cowboy Carter, which featured Shaboozey. Her album seamlessly blurred the lines between what the mainstream audience considers country music and pop music by capturing the essence of country music and combining that with her heavily popular influence.
Although country music has seen a large uprising, I personally feel that many voters would not see this new country movement as something particularly diverse or unheard of. I feel this sentiment because amongst the older crowd, within the 1940s-1980s, the popularity of country and folk music weaved in and out fairly unstably as stereo audio and electronic instruments began to emerge and change the industry as a whole.
Many voters may vote for Chappell Roan because of a multitude of reasons. She has the operatic vocality that is appealing to the contemporary crowd, and she also has the younger generations attention via her strong hooks, honest vulnerability on social media platforms and her dedication to her craft. Further, songs like ‘Good Luck Babe!’ dominated the charts for nearly the entire year. Chappell Roan has built a brand of success off of being authentic, relatable, characteristic, and appealing to a widespread audience by offering themes of different genres and styles.
My vote would go toward Doechii, however, because of her relentless passion, honesty and unique writing. Her words and flow tie together references to black culture, her own experiences and societal expectations while approaching the execution with a vision that prioritizes creativity and self-expression.
Song of the Year
Nominees:
- Fortnite (Taylor Swift & Post Malone, Jack Antonoff)
- Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish, Finneas)
- Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar)
- Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter, Jack Antonoff)
- A Bar Song (Tipsy) (Shaboozey, Mark Williams)
- Good Luck Babe! (Chappell Roan, Dan Nigro)
- Die With A Smile (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)
- Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyoncé)
My Vote: Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter, Jack Antonoff)
My Prediction: Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar)
This year’s Song of the Year offers a lot within the same genre. Many of the artists here have been nominated for a Grammy before, or have already won one before. My vote would go toward Please Please Please by Sabrina Carpenter due to its sound being ABBA-esque in an almost perfect execution and the way it has taken the world by storm over Summer and Fall.
However, none of the songs listed have had the impact that Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar continues to have in 2025. This is a song that will be remembered for the next decade, both due to the marketing being so well-executed and also the amount of controversy it caused. Perhaps a diss track on Drake, that is arranged so perfectionistically and has appealed to millions and millions of listeners deserves the vote of those who can make one. The impact of this song, not only on the music industry, but also on the culture itself is undeniably rare and significant.
Record of the Year
Nominees:
- Fortnite (Taylor Swift & Post Malone, Jack Antonoff)
- Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish, Finneas)
- Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar)
- 360 (Charli XCX)
- Now and Then (The Beatles)
- Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan)
- Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter)
- Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyoncé)
My Vote: Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan)
My Prediction: Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan)
I believe that when Sunday comes around, you will easily be able to interchange my predictions of Record of the Year and Song of the Year. Having similar nominees in both of these categories allows voters to pick one category as “safe” and another as more “objective.”
That said, I believe that ‘Good Luck, Babe!’ by Chappell Roan has a very high chance of winning this award. The impact of this song on the music industry in the last year has been strong because of Chappell’s branding and soundscape. As I mentioned earlier, her brand has significant power to captivate people from multiple genres due to her blend of styles from contemporary and modern music.
‘Espresso’ by Sabrina Carpenter would hold a special place and chance to win this award, however, ‘Good Luck, Babe!’ could easily be seen as a safer choice for Grammy voters of multiple generations because of how it appeals and comes across. All of the nominees in this category have strong chances, however, when we consider the interchangeability between Record and Song of the Year alongside the power of recency bias, I believe Chappell has a strong chance of sweeping heavily at the Grammys.
Album of the Year
Nominees:
- Cowboy Carter (Beyoncé)
- New Blue Sun (André 300)
- Djesse Vol 4 (Jacob Collier)
- Short n’ Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter)
- The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift)
- The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan)
- brat (Charli XCX)
- Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish)
My Vote: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan)
My Prediction: Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish)
Album of the Year is tricky. Charli XCX’s brat had a strong impact for a few months over the summer, however, I do not believe that many of the Grammy voters would choose this album due to its audible inaccessibility. For Album of the Year, most of the voters likely lean toward an album that is safe and cohesive, with strong potential of a legacy to resonate in music history. With those aspects being a leading indicator, I would assume that voters would pick Chappell Roans album, however, if they give her Song or Record of the Year for these exact same indicators, they will want to diversify their final vote for Album of the Year.
Billie Eilish’s album is a very safe vote. Her debut and sophomore albums won big at the Grammys and when reflecting on those pieces of work in retrospect, time has done them wonders and even strengthened their power. Billie’s latest album has at least one song of every theme. It has songs with ballads, a song that landed on Billboard charts and it even has an artist that is reputedly known for not being a controversial pick for awards.
Taylor Swift is typically a “safe” vote, however while Taylor’s overexposure is marvelous for sales and mainstream success, it will likely turn off Grammy voters from giving her their vote. Considering the fact Taylor’s last two albums have won this award, and also that a huge amount of people in and outside of the music industry have been so over-exposed to her brand, I believe this year Taylor Swift will be a victim of circumstance and it wouldn’t surprise me if her wins are in categories not shown on live television as it will allow the Grammys to have reason for her to appear at the show without blatant disrespect. Due to these factors, it wouldn’t surprise me if the majority of Grammy voters would lean toward Billie’s album as their final pick if they use their more “risky” votes on Brand New Artist, Song and Record of the Year categories.
While it is impossible to predict everything, when thinking of who voters would vote for, it is important to consider what they may be thinking or listening for. Voters are human after all, and many of them may not fully grasp the power of their own biases and preferences on their own vote and perspectives.
Gabe Kanae can be reached via email at gkanae@sagebrush.unr.edu or via Twitter @NevadaSagebrush.
